Hybrid Warfare and Its Impact on International Stability: Counterstrategies Since 2014 (Selected Case Studies)
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Abstract
Research Idea: This research assumes that hybrid warfare is no longer a situational tactic but has evolved into a structural strategic framework that reshapes patterns of interaction within the international system. It operates through the synchronized and integrated use of limited military force, cyber instruments, information campaigns, economic coercion, and the employment of non-state actors, thereby generating profound strategic effects without escalating into full-scale conventional war. In doing so, it gradually redefines the concepts of sovereignty, stability, and deterrence.
Objectives: The research aims to analyze the impact of hybrid warfare on international stability, examine its role in undermining traditional deterrence, weakening the effectiveness of international law and collective security systems, and explore its relationship with rising strategic fragility in the international system. It further seeks to develop an analytical framework for understanding contemporary transformations in patterns of conflict.
Methodes: The research adopts a deductive approach, beginning with an analysis of the structure of the international system, comprehensive security concepts, and theories of asymmetric conflict, before moving to selected case studies and response strategies. The analytical method constitutes the primary tool for deconstructing the structure of hybrid warfare, examining its causal relationships, assessing its strategic implications, and projecting its future trajectories.
Results: Hybrid warfare produces an ambiguous conflict environment in which the boundaries between war and peace become blurred, complicating legal attribution and reducing the effectiveness of deterrence. It transforms conflicts into prolonged, low-intensity crises aimed at strategic attrition rather than decisive military victory.
Conclusion: Confronting this pattern of conflict requires a comprehensive strategic approach integrating military, cyber, informational, economic, and flexible alliance dimensions, alongside a redefinition of deterrence and collective security concepts within a fragile and uncertain international environment.
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