French Influence in Central and West Africa after 2020: Future Prospects in Light of Military Coups

Research Idea: A wave of military coups occurred in several Central and West African countries beginning in 2020, amid generally deteriorating conditions. These coups brought to power military governments with anti-French orientations, backed by popular anti-French sentiment. In response, these governments adopted a series of measures aimed at curbing French influence in their countries, raising questions about its future trajectory.

Objective: The research aims to examine the nature and causes of military coups in selected Central and West African countries after 2020, assess their implications for French influence, and explore possible future scenarios for French influence in these countries in light of the post-coup political reality.

Methodology: The research employs a descriptive approach and a foresight approach, supplemented by a historical approach.

Results: Following the military coups of 2020, French influence in Central and West Africa declined politically, militarily, and economically. This decline resulted from measures adopted by the new military governments to reduce and weaken France’s deeply rooted influence, particularly through efforts to end French military presence and reduce economic and financial dependence on France as part of their pursuit of greater national autonomy and development.

Conclusion: Following the coups of 2020 and the resulting political changes, French influence in Central and West Africa faces three possible trajectories: continued decline and adaptation to the new reality; qualitative repositioning through partnerships and agreements; or greater reliance on cooperation within broader international partnerships across various fields in an effort to preserve French influence.